Domestic Fragility as Geopolitical Vector: Nepal’s Lessons for Indonesia’s Middle Power Strategic Autonomy
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Abstract
This study examines the phenomenon of domestic fragility as a geopolitical vector, using Nepal's buffer state experience to derive critical strategic lessons for Indonesia's middle power strategic autonomy in the context of intensifying Great Power Competition (GPC) in the Indo-Pacific. Nepal's recent political instability, marked by youth-led "Gen Z protests," was fundamentally triggered by deep-seated governance failures, including endemic corruption, stark social inequality ("nepo-kids" phenomenon), and a massive youth unemployment crisis. These socio-economic grievances served as a 'soft entry point' for external geopolitical exploitation, as seen in the rivalry over the U.S.'s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The core finding for Indonesia is that robust socio-economic resilience aligned with the Economic and Social-Cultural Pillars of Indonesia's Ketahanan Nasional (National Resilience) is the most vital component for geopolitical defense. The study argues that internal stability, clean governance, and effective absorption of the youth bulge must be prioritized to prevent external actors from exploiting domestic dissatisfaction, thereby preserving Indonesia's strategic autonomy and middle power status amidst GPC.
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