Continuity over Rupture: Elite Cartels and Democratic Recession in the Indonesian Transition

Abstract

This article analyzes the presidential power transition in Indonesia from Joko Widodo to Prabowo Subianto, juxtaposing the state's narrative of a smooth, mature democracy against the provocative hypothesis of an impending "radical break". It argues that the "radical break" discourse is not a literal prediction but a political instrument for managing power dynamics and public perception. Through a qualitative, descriptive-analytical method and employing the "political cartel" framework, this study deconstructs the transition's underlying logic. The analysis reveals that the transition represents not a rupture, but a continuity of pragmatic, elite-driven politics. President Prabowo inherits a political apparatus characterized by democratic recession, institutional weakness, and a super-majority coalition designed to neutralize opposition. Consequently, any cabinet reshuffle should be interpreted as a strategic recalibration of patronage networks to consolidate personal authority rather than a fundamental ideological shift, reinforcing the persistence of cartel politics over substantive democratic change.